Numbers.
I recorded all my pre flop all in from Jan 1st until this moment.
Total runs: 419
Total opponents: 510
So average of 1.2172 opponent per run.
Assuming everyone's hand power and luck are equal, I should have a win rate of 1 / (1+1.22) = 45.10%
Actual scenario:
My total EV is 193.2562 wins (Equity being 46.1232%).
But actual result is 173.50 wins (Draw counts as 0.5 win)
Question: Where am I?
Of course I recorded the expected result of every match up (card suits included in the calculation), example:
KQ:KK:TT:JJ: 5.38% win, 0.68% draw
AQs:77:99:22: 53.23% win, 0.49% draw
AK:AQ:AJs: 50.06% win, 3.77% draw
QQ:KK:ATs: 17.78% win, 0.40% draw
Then time to ChatGPT a program to simulate 1M rounds of 419 runs each and compare to my result.
Avg: 193.3
Median: 193.5
Best: 238.5
Worst: 151.0
Top 1 %: 214.5
Top 2 %: 212.0
Top 5 %: 208.0
Top 10 %: 205.0
Top 25 %: 199.5
Top 50 %: 193.5
Top 75 %: 187.0
Top 90 %: 181.5
Top 95 %: 178.5
Top 98 %: 174.5
Top 99 %: 172.5
Result in the file (173.5) is at 98.4685% to 98.6705% (the lower the luckier)
..What's the odd of being placed in the bottom 2% percentile? I think it's 2%, or 1 in 50.
In tournaments, when chip stack is short, there isn't much room for bluffs and other things, pre-flop all in is inevitable.
But based on my result, the platform (name: REDACTED) I'm playing on, I think it's trust worthy is questionable.
A weird thing: They also have slots, including NLC games which seems to be legit, I hit a 500x on Bushido Ways and a 1000x on Remember gulag, both within 500-1000 spins.
But having such a bad luck on those $5-$15 tournaments...plus their reward program don't care about this (They only care about your expected contribution to their rake income), ouch tough time.
Another problem I have:
Operate a casino in China Mainland is illegal.
And a lot of casinos doesn't take players from China due to legal or license or whatever reasons.
So any recommendation for trust worthy poker site with tournaments, plus accepting Chinese players? (I bad at cash game)
Feb 7th
in 522 preflop all in, my luck has gone worse!
Simulation Results:
Avg: 242.7
Median: 242.5
Best: 290.0
Worst: 195.5
...
Result in the file (216.5) is at TOP 99.4922% to 99.5582% (the lower the luckier)
(Opposite direction)
Result in the file (216.5) is at BOTTOM 0.5078% to 0.4418% (the higher the luckier)
Now I'm doing REALLY BAD.
Once the last $30 of my balance ran out I'd be done with it.
It's ridiculously funny.
Not MGA licensed, not Curacao licensed, it's licensed by Philippines. Many shady Chinese casino are also licensed by places like Philippines or Isle of Man, and definitely worth a question mark.
Feb 8th
It went great, I ran my $30 up to $150.
Feb 9th
It's a bad day. As always, most of the hands either end up in small wins, or big loss.
As I mentioned before, I still think there's those "Punisher Bots" to detect and punish any player that's in a tilt status.
I feel like they intentionally mess with their server, to make it more unstable and easier to lost connection. And this can lead to some players getting tilted, includes me. (From the di
And I got punished:
A cooler (A high flush lose to Full House)
Consistently running low on luck, both preflop and postflop. Which means not having nearly enough good hands, yesterday I have a 3bet rate of 10%, today only 7%.
And a cash drop event (Pot begins with 10BB), which my strategy is All-In with top 10% hand along with some medium pairs (55+), limp with the rest. I got AQo, and there's 2 other players went all-in, being AKo and QQ, making me the worst hand.
Plus others.
Math:
Three players getting the top 5% hand, happens 0.22% of the time. Should be even lower in reality because one player getting AQ/AK/... will reduce the chance other players also getting those top premiums.
Then this happens on a Cash drop event, which happens 1 in 300 games.
OK well never mind. No more math. Since I never fully trust this casino, I'd say math and odds doesn't matter.
I won't deposit anymore until Feb 21st. Since this time I ran $30 up to $150, and I noticed even against some coolers I lose less because I'm more vigilant and maybe improved skills, I do see some hope (very important), and next time I'll deposit $100 to try again. Previously my goal is, if I can ran it up to $100 then I'd consider there's still hope left, which I might try again in the future.
2 possible outcomes:
15%-20% Good End: If that $100 have at least 1 moment I ran it up to $250, I shall continue.
80%-85% Bad End: Otherwise, I will never touch that platform/casino again, regardless of version (China version or Asia version or Global version). Playing poker with other people face-to-face is still possible but only if it's trust worthy casino or friends. Trust worthy casinos with a good reputation and either MGA or Curacao license is also OK.
If anyone want to suggest some place to play poker online, you can post it here or DM me. But must be a trust worthy one that also takes Chinese player or VPN users, plus also takes cryptos. Would be better if you can tell me what kind of license they have acquired.
@tuttanxd Pokerstars won't work, they don't take players from my country plus they don't take crypto deposit. I can try to play there but it's going to be very tedious and not worth the effort I guess.
Numbers.
I recorded all my pre flop all in from Jan 1st until this moment.
Total runs: 419
Total opponents: 510
So average of 1.2172 opponent per run.
Assuming everyone's hand power and luck are equal, I should have a win rate of 1 / (1+1.22) = 45.10%
Actual scenario:
My total EV is 193.2562 wins (Equity being 46.1232%).
But actual result is 173.50 wins (Draw counts as 0.5 win)
Question: Where am I?
Of course I recorded the expected result of every match up (card suits included in the calculation), example:
KQ:KK:TT:JJ: 5.38% win, 0.68% draw
AQs:77:99:22: 53.23% win, 0.49% draw
AK:AQ:AJs: 50.06% win, 3.77% draw
QQ:KK:ATs: 17.78% win, 0.40% draw
Then time to ChatGPT a program to simulate 1M rounds of 419 runs each and compare to my result.
Avg: 193.3
Median: 193.5
Best: 238.5
Worst: 151.0
Top 1 %: 214.5
Top 2 %: 212.0
Top 5 %: 208.0
Top 10 %: 205.0
Top 25 %: 199.5
Top 50 %: 193.5
Top 75 %: 187.0
Top 90 %: 181.5
Top 95 %: 178.5
Top 98 %: 174.5
Top 99 %: 172.5
Result in the file (173.5) is at 98.4685% to 98.6705% (the lower the luckier)
..What's the odd of being placed in the bottom 2% percentile? I think it's 2%, or 1 in 50.
In tournaments, when chip stack is short, there isn't much room for bluffs and other things, pre-flop all in is inevitable.
But based on my result, the platform (name: REDACTED) I'm playing on, I think it's trust worthy is questionable.
A weird thing: They also have slots, including NLC games which seems to be legit, I hit a 500x on Bushido Ways and a 1000x on Remember gulag, both within 500-1000 spins.
But having such a bad luck on those $5-$15 tournaments...plus their reward program don't care about this (They only care about your expected contribution to their rake income), ouch tough time.
Another problem I have:
Operate a casino in China Mainland is illegal.
And a lot of casinos doesn't take players from China due to legal or license or whatever reasons.
So any recommendation for trust worthy poker site with tournaments, plus accepting Chinese players? (I bad at cash game)
Use a wrong example here:
I'd say the poker site I'm playing on is just as trust worthy as 96% RTP (I know it's an inappropriate example)
Some people might believe it all the times, other might doubt it all the time, such as me.
Viewer's discretion is advised.
Yes exactly, me too always in doubt about RTP
same here but its fun to look at
Some updates.
I'm almost done.
Feb 7th
in 522 preflop all in, my luck has gone worse!
Simulation Results:
Avg: 242.7
Median: 242.5
Best: 290.0
Worst: 195.5
...
Result in the file (216.5) is at TOP 99.4922% to 99.5582% (the lower the luckier)
(Opposite direction)
Result in the file (216.5) is at BOTTOM 0.5078% to 0.4418% (the higher the luckier)
Now I'm doing REALLY BAD.
Once the last $30 of my balance ran out I'd be done with it.
It's ridiculously funny.
Not MGA licensed, not Curacao licensed, it's licensed by Philippines. Many shady Chinese casino are also licensed by places like Philippines or Isle of Man, and definitely worth a question mark.
Feb 8th
It went great, I ran my $30 up to $150.
Feb 9th
It's a bad day. As always, most of the hands either end up in small wins, or big loss.
As I mentioned before, I still think there's those "Punisher Bots" to detect and punish any player that's in a tilt status.
I feel like they intentionally mess with their server, to make it more unstable and easier to lost connection. And this can lead to some players getting tilted, includes me. (From the di
And I got punished:
A cooler (A high flush lose to Full House)
Consistently running low on luck, both preflop and postflop. Which means not having nearly enough good hands, yesterday I have a 3bet rate of 10%, today only 7%.
And a cash drop event (Pot begins with 10BB), which my strategy is All-In with top 10% hand along with some medium pairs (55+), limp with the rest. I got AQo, and there's 2 other players went all-in, being AKo and QQ, making me the worst hand.
Plus others.
Math:
Three players getting the top 5% hand, happens 0.22% of the time. Should be even lower in reality because one player getting AQ/AK/... will reduce the chance other players also getting those top premiums.
Then this happens on a Cash drop event, which happens 1 in 300 games.
OK well never mind. No more math. Since I never fully trust this casino, I'd say math and odds doesn't matter.
I won't deposit anymore until Feb 21st. Since this time I ran $30 up to $150, and I noticed even against some coolers I lose less because I'm more vigilant and maybe improved skills, I do see some hope (very important), and next time I'll deposit $100 to try again. Previously my goal is, if I can ran it up to $100 then I'd consider there's still hope left, which I might try again in the future.
2 possible outcomes:
15%-20% Good End: If that $100 have at least 1 moment I ran it up to $250, I shall continue.
80%-85% Bad End: Otherwise, I will never touch that platform/casino again, regardless of version (China version or Asia version or Global version). Playing poker with other people face-to-face is still possible but only if it's trust worthy casino or friends. Trust worthy casinos with a good reputation and either MGA or Curacao license is also OK.
If anyone want to suggest some place to play poker online, you can post it here or DM me. But must be a trust worthy one that also takes Chinese player or VPN users, plus also takes cryptos. Would be better if you can tell me what kind of license they have acquired.
For homegames, Pokernow is the best.
Maybe we should do a bigwinboard community tournament? :D
But for gambling i dont know, i usually play pokerstars @hxlohar - Not sure about the country restrictions though
@tuttanxd Pokerstars won't work, they don't take players from my country plus they don't take crypto deposit. I can try to play there but it's going to be very tedious and not worth the effort I guess.
@hxlohar how about coinpoker? Anjoun licensed