This post contains complaining and some other negative emotions. But this thing is just so bizarre that it's no longer possible for me to endure all those bullshits. If I keep enduring those on my own eventually it should drive me crazy, so I choose to share it here, to reduce the amount of negative emotion on me. Unfortunately talking to someone is not a method to me.
The title. It's not a clickbait. It's real.
All sessions are recorded, with corresponding history can be found if needed. Here's an example:
Jul 8th 2024, on Stake, crypto is USDC, view in fiat is IDR: 990 spins x 1380 Rp base bet, result -529230 Rp which is -383.5x
So how do I recover from this by achieving break even? Short answer: No. I'm not even thinking about it.
So if I go to my Stake account and select USDC in crypto and IDR in view in fiat, head to Tombstone Rip and check my history on that day, the mentioned session's history should show up there. Unless my profile got wiped.
I know there are hardcore grinders here. 50k-100k spins on a single game. Sometimes even more.
I also grind. On Tombstone Rip. The goal is a 10000x or higher, or at least a big win lv5 (5000x) screen. I'm ready to spend 500k spins on it over the next 1-3 years if I still didn't quit gambling. But if this trend continues, I'd be down 150000x by the time I played 500k spins.
~100K spins last year, got a 5000x, and a 2000x, final result should around -5000x, and definitely within -10000x.
But ~100K spins this year hurts much more.
Honestly I don't think any grinders here are nearly as unlucky as I am. 100K spins, down ~15Kx should already be unlucky enough.
I know the volatility. Tombstone Rip is 60+ volatility (standard deviation).
Folsom and Serial are 40+ volatility. Kenneth is 30+ volatility. Those 3 games, I played 30k-50k spins on each, it didn't hurt that much. Didn't get 2000x on any of those, although had a 1900x on Folsom, a 1700x and a 1500x on Serial, and a few 1000x+ on Kenneth. Actually None of those caused a loss more than 5000x.
Screenshot: another day (today) I casually deposit 1000x just to lose it in 2 hours and can't even get a 100x. 8715 spins got me 4 100x and 1 150x, where the expected number is 8-9 win 100x or higher. I also lost a total of 3686.3x today, and oops, not even a single 200x or higher.
If I write down all those bizarre things then I'd get a "science fiction" filled with real events that other might feel hard to believe it. Something like alien documentations.
While volatility, variance and randomness can help to explain those, when numbers are too far away from the expected result after ~100k spins, this method no longer work well. Just look at ELK studios in the Hall of Shame. After 60k-80k spins on their games the result is simple: I gave up.
-2000x a day? Happened 3-5 times.
Win 2000x? Didn't happen within the recorded timeframe.
In comparison, on my recorded 12k action bonus buys, the longest gap between two win 2000x was 7 groups (each group = 100 regular bonus), and those 7 group's total result is -12800x. Less than half of my losses. Base game players having less big wins than bonus buy players is reasonable. But meanwhile they also lose more? Sounds not right to me.
Usually profit from one's luckiest day should be greater than the loss from one's most unlucky day. Oops, this is no longer true for me when it comes to Tombstone Rip.
Recorded timeframe:
PART 1 (A mix of xBet and Non xBet Spins, but mainly xBet):
Jun 11th - Jul 4th, 24 days
Overall info:
Spins: 30398
Wagered: 33677.6x
Win/Loss: -10624.5x
RTP for this part is 68.45% *
* Assuming all the base bet are equal in value.
Win 500x or higher:
1800x - Upgraded Super Bonus(9)
1000x - Direct hit Super Bonus
600x - Regular Bonus
Super Bonuses:
Upgrade(2): 9.3x
Upgrade(5): 90.0x
Upgrade(9): 1840.2x
Upgrade(5): 77.4x
Direct Hit: 1061.1x
Other
Win 100x or higher
Got: 32
Fun fact: with xBet, no base game 100x or higher was recorded. Although it happened a few times before I started recording those.
PART 2 (No xBet at all)
Jun 4th - Now (Sep 18th), 77 days
Overall info:
Spins: 69890
Wagered 69890.0x
Win/Loss: -19700.4x
RTP for this part is 71.81% *
* Again, assuming all the base bet are equal in value.
For both part combined, RTP is 70.72%. (30324.9x loss, 103567.6x wagered)
Win 500x or higher:
1200x - Regular Bonus
1000x - Regular Bonus
850x - Regular Bonus 850x
700x - Base Game Hang x2
500x - Base Game
500x - Base Game
500x - Base Game Hang x2
Super Bonus
Expectation is 3-4 upgraded super bonus. Also >50% chance of getting at least 1 direct hit.
Reality is a really bad one. Upgraded 4 spins left.
Upgraded(4): 78.6x
Other
Win 100x or higher
Got: 56
Expected (1/1014 freq shown on the game product sheet): 68.93
When it comes to win 100x freq, my luck is at the bottom 6.379% percentile.
(All those numbers are calculated with a Binomial Probability Calculator I found online)
I did ~12k regular bonus actions spins.
Win 2000x or more from regular bonus (including upgraded ones), is ~1/275
30.4k mainly xBet spins should give me ~300 bonus.
69.9k non xBet spins should give me another ~350 bonus.
And I still can't get a 2000x or higher.
My luck of winning 2000x or higher from regular bonus is at approx. bottom 9.37% percentile.
Of couse, the most severe problem, is the upgraded super bonus. This is the main reason that I suggests Tombstone Rip after Feb/Mar 2024 is a new game with different math, although other factors also matters. Many small details adds up that I have to give it a question mark.
Aside from lack of quantity, quanlity is an even bigger issue. 4 out of 5 end up below 100x, including a sub 10x one.
In my recorded data set of 12k action bonus buy, 1 in 7.5 upgraded super bonus end up sub 100x. Which is very far away from 4/5, and got me placed in the top 0.141% percentile of sub 100x upgraded super bonus freq.
Conclusion
Never thought it would come to me THAT fast.
I was expecting down 30000x after 200k-300k spins, or at very least, after 150k spins. But I got there, in just sub 100k spins.
Imagine keep grinding on a game for an avg of ~1000 spins a day (~45 minutes on Tombstone Rip) just to find out getting only 70.72% average RTP during the last 3 and a half months. More than +600% house edge boost makes it the least affordable entertainment option among slots. I mean, none of us deserves such level of unlucky.
I play on different casinos. And their other NLC games still functions as usual, being able to pay me some 500x-1000x from time to time. Except Tombstone Rip, my all time favorite, always eats my balance multiple times faster than before. It was fun while it lasted in 2023, but now it just changed so much, actually my first time I feel using variance to explain it isn't enough.
For the non xBet part, a lot of those sessions I think I was experiencing a significantly lowered win 100x freq
But on my spreadsheet it's only 20% less than average. Which I found out to be an error in the formula which the base game column was counted twice.
After I corrected this, the number of win 100x-999.9x I had is only 42. Plus 2 1000x+, I only got 44 where the expected average number is 68.93
Now I'm placed in the bottom 0.089% percentile. In other words, if someone else do a big group of 69890 spins, there's a <0.1% chance of only getting 44 or less win 100x+.
tombstone remains a very volatile machine over thousands of spins
@leofrozen But some numbers are disclosed by NLC. Unless they're lying.
Free spins: 1/194
Win 100x: 1/1014
Being more volatile shouldn't change those numbers they provided. It shouldn't be "it's too volatile so everything is harder than the average number we provided here, in other words we're lying" as I trust NLC.
But the numbers I got (example, win 100x freq) is a bit too far from the expectation. Not talking about the bad quality, the quantity I got place me in the bottom 0.1% percentile over a span of almost 70k spins.
I'll start a new speadsheet to see for every session, what's my luck, in terms of bonus freq and win 100x freq. Not asking about quality, only recording quantity and compare it to average for now. When enough data are gathered I'll post an update here.
ok I understand better, I hope the results will be very satisfactory
I wish you good luck 🙏
Based on your numbers you are unlucky but i think the majority feels that way.
I once hit the superbonus after one spin in the regular bonus. So i had 9 spins? on a 1€ bet size super bonus. It paid me 15x 😑😑😑
i needed a new phone afterwards 😅
@roelosss This time I'm WAYYYY below the average.
Say you get a group of 20k players. Each wagering 100000x by spinning. Unsure if there will be extremely unlucky players who lost 40000x-50000x. But losing 30000x should be enough to get placed in bottom 0.05% to 0.1%. That's where I am.
Their numbers are likely correct but they are taken from some statistical theory or from millions of simulated spins. They are worthless for real life application for the single, simple gambler. Also casinos may have access to different RTP versions of the slot.
NLC is a good provider if you like wacky themed slots with very high production value and interesting mechanics. This in combination with their high max wins make them highly addictive. But I feel their slots are more tuned towards bonus buys and streamers nowadays, max wins are "hidden" behind X amounts of bonuses.
Good luck but remember the golden rule: dont chase losses
Also casinos may have access to different RTP versions of the slot.
I sometimes check those information and it's 96%. Unless it's a fake version, with 94% math behind it but labeled as 96% RTP on the info page.
@gormack82 I tried chasing my loss only once, which happened 1 year 3 months ago. It caused a disaster and I never did it again. Even if I plan to do so, spinning on Tombstone Rip might be one of the worst approach.
Did another few groups of action bonus buy with NLC coins, to a total of 16000 regular bonus.
It's a bit "surprising", in the bad direction.
First of all, no 10Kx achieved.
Recorded RTP: 91.85%
(Down 91Kx at the end, expected to be down 39Kx)
Top 3:
8748.0x (this is actually beautiful, triple xNudge with xSplit at the end. That xSplit have a 50/50 chance of producing a 10Kx or this 8.7Kx)
8571.8x
8268.0x
None of the upgraded one made it to the Top 3.
157 Upgrades, so the 1/109 upgrade freq is true.
Best 6689.2x Worst 2.1x
Average 1278.0x, Median 967x
<300x 35 of 157 = 1 in 4.48
<100x 17 of 157 = 1 in 9.23
So 4 out of 5 upgraded super being sub 100x is indeed extremely unlucky.
Then today I got this.
Another 30% RTP session. Fair enough.
But soring by win amount, there's nothing 20x or higher.
I had a record of all my sessions, for 2024 Q2 and 2024 Q3 this also includes the biggest monetary win of the session. And this is the worst. $1.95 biggest win (sub 20x), for a session with $75.56 deposit. I also can't remember any similar things happened to me in the past.
It feels like they're dumping all sorts of unlucky events on me, and a different aspect of unlucky each time.
Other NLC games are still great. Except Kenneth less great comparing to when it's released. FitH2 and PR2 are still masterpiece. But there's just no way to convince me, Tombstone Rip is unchanged.
I know some of members here think Serial has changed. With some evidence like 50000 spins played after the "change". I have more evidence on Tombstone Rip:
First of all, my sample size is bigger: 100000 spins on both version (Original version prior to Feb/Mar 2024, and the 2024 version after that).
And, I'm known for addicted to stats and recorded a lot of numbers. Here's a link to the Tombstone Rip part: Tombstone Rip session records (Page 3 is the newest one, hopefully it won't keep behaving at 70% RTP)
My last 500x was on Aug 16th, which is more than a month ago.
After that I did 29821 spins w/o hitting another 500x, causing a loss of 10699.5x (I won't be surprised if this number reaches 15000x in a week or two)
I went back to check my 16000 action bonus buy recorded (which should grow to 20000+ soon). There's always at least a 500x or higher, in any 3 consecutive groups. 1 group = 100 regular bonus buy (7000x total price)
There are a few clusters of 3 consecutive groups with a total loss of 8000x-9000x. But those all had some 500x or 1000x in it.
Bonus buy means taking a higher risk (more bankroll required) but higher chance of winning big.
Number are just off by too much. Especially ALL aspects of the regular bonus. Only a single <100x upgraded super bonus for 80000 non xBet spins (69k from Page 2 and 11k from Page 3), and whenever the reel 5 tease happens, it's almost always the wrong thing, or the worst one possible.
Losing 10000x w/o any 500x didn't happen in 16000 bonus buys but happened to me in real money play. Sorry for my bad English, I'm out of words and don't know how to describe this super mega bizarre rare event.
First of all, other NLC games are still cool, FitH 2, PR2 and Folsom are still as good as always and are playable (haven't played Serial in a while).
I don't want to complain as I know people are not interested in reading long paragraphs of complain. But if they keep dumping extreme unlucky events on me, I have no choice but to post it here, so such things don't get unnoticed.
Today: and another 3000 spins, I lost 1000x again, without getting a single 100x (expected freq 1 in 1014spins)
After I believe more than a month, I got another upgraded super bonus (4 spins).
ANOTHER SUB 100x (base bet 80 ARS$), for the 5th time, since I started recording my Tombstone Rip sessions. Among those records, I only hit 6 upgraded super in total.
Reference: 16000 action bonus buy w/ NLC coins, 17 out 157 (10.83%) upgraded super are below 100x.
Assuming that number is accurate, <0.01% of the time, you'll get 5 or more sub 100x upgraded super bonus among 6 upgraded super bonus.
Will take a break from this for sure. For me, next few days or even 1-2 weeks is going to be all about SQ 2 for sure.
Before things gets better I won't bet more than €0.05 on this anymore.
What does bottom 0.01% percentile looks like? Here's 3 comparisons:
It's like failing 9 to 5 god mode (1/7), 45 times in a row
Or failing Brick Snake 2000 god mode (1/5), 42 times in a row
Or a game with 1/200 bonus freq, no bonus in ~1850 spins.
Intresting. Maybe I missed it, but do you have any statistics of how many super bonuses you got?
What I am looking for is:
How many super bonuses (landing in basegame).
How many upgrades.
How evenly distributed the super bonuses were (did they come in clusters or spread out).
@borsenfussin super bonus: 1 direct hit + 6 upgraded
And a lot of base game super spin (~1/800)
Everything is in a spreadsheet in case you're interested (there are multiple pages/tabs on the bottom)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X_MPkpZYamg6ciQoIdlK-IRklLuQJMySrzZtY6vRGg4/edit?usp=sharing